What characters believe, how they act based on those beliefs,and how their beliefs are updated is an essential element of many stories. State-space narrative planning algorithms treat their search spaces like a set of temporally possible worlds. We present an extension that models character beliefs as epistemically possible worlds and describe how such a space is generated. We also present the results of an experiment that demonstrates that the model meets the expectations of a human audience.

We propose a probabilistic model to aggregate the answers of respondents answering multiple-choice questions. The model does not assume that everyone has access to the same information, and so does not assume that the consensus answer is correct. Instead, it infers the most probable world state, even if only a minority vote for it. Each respondent is modeled as receiving a signal contingent on the actual world state, and as using this signal to both determine their own answer and predict the answers given by others. By incorporating respondent's predictions of others' answers, the model infers latent parameters corresponding to the prior over world states and the probability of different signals being received in all possible world states, including counterfactual ones. Unlike other probabilistic models for aggregation, our model applies to both single and multiple questions, in which case it estimates each respondent's expertise. The model shows good performance, compared to a number of other probabilistic models, on data from seven studies covering different types of expertise.